Senior officials have warned that India’s rice and wheat production could decline by 6-10% due to climate change, jeopardizing access to affordable food for millions of people. Additionally, rising ocean temperatures are causing fish to migrate to cooler, deeper waters, impacting fishing communities. In the 2023-24 crop year, India’s wheat production reached 113.29 million tonnes, accounting for 14% of global supply, while rice production stood at more than 137 million tonnes. Rice and wheat are staple foods for the country’s 1.4 billion people, 80% of whom depend on subsidized grains provided by government schemes.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra told PTI, “Climate change will reduce the yield of both wheat and rice by 6 to 10 percent, which will significantly impact the food security of farmers and the country.” He said global warming is also reducing the frequency and strength of western disturbances, which are weather systems emerging from the Mediterranean region that bring winter rain and snowfall to northwest India.
This could lead to severe water shortage for billions of people living in the Himalayas and lower plains in the near future, M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, while speaking to PTI along with Mahapatra, said. According to the National Institute for Innovation in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), wheat production in India is projected to decline by 6-25 percent by 2100. Irrigated rice yields are expected to decline 7 percent by 2050 and 10 percent by 2080.
About half the population in India depends on agriculture. Government data shows that more than 80 percent of farmers are small and marginal farmers, owning less than 2 hectares of land. Ravichandran said that due to rising sea temperatures, fishing near the coast is also declining. He said, “Like humans, fish also prefer cold water. As ocean temperatures rise, fish are moving away from the coast to cooler waters. This is causing major problems for the fishing community And their livelihoods are being affected.”
Ravichandran said that due to increasing instability in the atmosphere due to climate change, it is becoming difficult to predict the weather accurately. Many extreme weather events are now occurring simultaneously over shorter periods of time over smaller areas. “A study shows that climate change could reduce the time to predict heavy rainfall from three days to one and a half days,” Mohapatra said.
Ravichandran said the reduction in the number and intensity of western disturbances affecting northwest India is leading to a decline in snow accumulation in the Himalayas, even as snow melting is increasing. “The input is low, and the output is high. This means that the availability of water is decreasing. More than two billion people, including India and China, depend on this water. This is a very serious issue, and we need to be aware of it.” What should be worried is the future,” he warned.
The snow-clad Himalaya and Hindukush mountain ranges are known as the Third Pole, containing the largest reserves of fresh water outside the polar regions. About one-seventh of the global population depends on the water from the rivers originating from these mountains. IMD data shows that India’s average temperature rose by about 0.7 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2018. In line with the global pattern, 2024 was recorded as the hottest year in India since 1901, with the average minimum temperature rising 0.90 degrees Celsius above the long-term. average.
Experts have estimated a decline of up to 10% in wheat and rice yields due to climate change.
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