The Nation’s Teldex Index and the Cboe Skew Index, two separate gauges that measure how much traders are paying for crash protection, have retreated from where they stood before the Feb. 28 strike on Iran. The S&P 500 is still 2% below pre-war levels.
Scott Nations, president of Nations Index, an independent developer of volatility and option strategy index products, said, “TDEX is signaling that investors are now less concerned about a “tail event” or a truly sharp drop in equity prices anytime after the start of a war.
“Given the muted response of the S&P 500, this outlook makes sense, but it’s an important benchmark to watch,” he said.
On Monday, the Teldex index was at 18.84, just below its closing level of 19.01 on February 27. The Cboe SKEW index ended Monday at 141.49, up from 146.67 before the airstrikes.
Both indices hit multi-month highs as rising oil prices allayed fears of a significant pullback in the markets.
The price of deep-of-the-money S&P 500 puts — contracts that would protect against a 20% decline in the market over the next three months — is slightly higher than it was immediately before the strike, according to Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson.
“After touching multi-year highs last week, S&P sideways levels have gradually declined as some of that downside has faded with tail bids,” Jacobson said.
While fears of a market crash have subsided, market anxiety levels are still higher than they were in early February. Also, investors are rushing to bet on a sharp rebound in stocks beyond old highs.
“We haven’t really seen it go back to the skewed inverted tail,” Jacobson said.
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