Keir Starmer has insisted the UK-US special relationship will “prosper” under Donald Trump, but the British Prime Minister’s Labor government has plenty of reasons to fear a return to the Republican presidency.
The potential trade war, unflattering comments from labor ministers about Trump, and any role for starrer critic Elon Musk in Trump’s administration will cause a tough ride between allies.
Britain’s “iron-clad” support for Ukraine in the war against Russian aggression and its “unwavering commitment” to the NATO military alliance are also likely to become major bones of contention, experts said.
Starmer took the first step late Wednesday, calling Trump to congratulate him, telling reporters at a European summit in Budapest on Thursday that the call was “very positive, very constructive.”
But Richard Whitman, international relations professor at the University of Kent, said the centre-left government in London would be feeling “nervous” about Trump’s return to the White House.
“Most of the broad parameters of British foreign policy are set by responding to major engagements of the United States,” he told AFP, referring to doubts over Trump’s commitment to Ukraine and NATO.
Britain has been one of Ukraine’s biggest financial and military supporters since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and any change in policy by Trump would leave the country in an uncomfortable position.
“(The UK) can’t do a 180-degree turn on Ukraine because it has invested so much,” Whitman said.
Simon Fraser, previously a top civil servant in Britain’s Foreign Office, said UK-US relations could be complicated by Trump’s approach to the EU – and whether that includes tariffs on allies.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 20 percent on all American imports and up to 60 percent on Chinese goods.
economic unpredictability
Britain could be caught in the middle of a trade war between Trump and the EU.
Global economic instability will hamper Starmer’s pledge to boost Britain’s flagging economy.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a leading think tank, has warned that Trump’s tariff plans could halve Britain’s economic growth over the next two years, sending prices and interest rates soaring.
Lindsey James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said that with a Trump presidency it is “unlikely that any (UK-US) trade deal talks will be restarted”.
“The UK has no clear bargaining power,” he said.
Labor is historically close to the Democratic Party, and was attended by many senior figures at its convention in Chicago in July when Kamala Harris was appointed presidential candidate.
Last month, Trump accused the Starmer government of “gross foreign interference” in the US election over travel and Labor staffers campaigning for Harris.
Behind the scenes, Labor has tried to build relations with Trump’s team in recent months, and Starmer dined with Trump for two hours in September.
Previous comments from senior Labor figures have the potential to make the deal awkward, however, none more so than Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who in 2018 described Trump as a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi sympathizing sociopath” and a “tyrant.” Dictator” said. ,
Senior minister Pat McFadden said Thursday that Trump was an “admirer of the United Kingdom” and that Starmer’s one-on-one meeting with him had been “productive.”
“I think in the end, those shared values and interests are more important than some tweet from several years ago,” he said. “You can move on from these things.”
no plan b
Starmer’s political spokesman insisted on Wednesday that Lammy would remain in post for the full five-year parliamentary term.
But trouble could also come from Musk, the Trump supporter and tech billionaire who drew a rebuke from ministers this summer after claiming that far-right riots across England would lead to a “civil war.”
Britain and the United States are also likely to disagree on climate, with Trump a self-proclaimed climate change skeptic and Labor determined to make Britain a “clean energy superpower”.
Analysts say the special relationship forged during World War II has endured for 80 years despite multiple governments with different ideologies on both sides of the Atlantic.
“Political differences at the top don’t mean the whole relationship is weak. There are checks and balances,” Fraser said, citing “institutional structures.”
Whitman agreed that it would stand but added: “If it does not, a great big pillar of British foreign and security policy will collapse.
“And if you set it against what has already happened with (leaving) the EU, (then) the UK has really gone astray.
“The UK has no defense strategy. It has no Plan B for relations with the US.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
