Declining fertility rate in India: Is it going the way of dangerous South Korea?
Is RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s suggestion of three or more children right? DMK’s Stalin and Chandrababu Naidu are also asking people to have more children. Why?
In 2023, South Korea reached a shocking new milestone in its demographic trajectory – its fertility rate fell to an unprecedented low of 0.72 children per woman. This rate, well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain a stable population, signals an impending crisis. While South Korea’s struggle with demographic decline is serious, it also serves as an early warning to other countries, especially India, which is on a somewhat slower but equally worrying path.
Impact of South Korea’s fertility decline
South Korea’s rapid decline in fertility is having serious implications for the country’s future. Experts estimate that if current trends continue, South Korea’s population could be halved within the next 50 years. This demographic shift is not just about numbers; This signals changes in the workforce and aging society. The declining youth population and the growing elderly group will create many economic challenges.
- Workforce Reduction: With fewer youth entering the labor market, South Korea may face a shortage of workers in key sectors, resulting in slower economic growth and potential labor shortages.
- Pressure on social services: As the elderly population grows, demands on health care and pension systems will increase dramatically. The burden of supporting the growing number of retirees will fall on an ever-dwindling pool of young workers, threatening the viability of South Korea’s social safety net.
- Changing Family Structures: As family sizes shrink and marriage rates decline, traditional family structures may disintegrate, leading to changes in social dynamics and cultural norms.
Global decline in fertility rates
South Korea’s demographic crisis is part of a broader global trend. Fertility rates are falling around the world, especially in developed countries. Although the global population is set to exceed 8 billion in 2022, the fertility rate is expected to decline to about 2.1 by 2050 – enough to replace the current generation. However, many developed countries, especially in Europe and East Asia, are already below replacement level.
- Older Population: The population of elderly citizens is increasing rapidly, especially in OECD countries. The increasing demand for social services, health care and pensions will challenge governments to find sustainable solutions.
- financial results: International financial agencies such as Fitch Ratings have warned that these demographic changes will have long-term economic consequences. Slow economic growth, labor shortages, and increased government spending on social services could disrupt economic stability.
Demographic change of India
India, currently the world’s most populous country, is also experiencing a decline in fertility rates. From a peak rate of 6.18 children per woman in 1950, the fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.29 by 2050, which will fall below the replacement rate of 2.1. Although the pace of India’s demographic change is slower than that of South Korea, the decline in fertility is still a cause for concern.
- Growing Concerns: Indian leaders, including figures such as Mohan Bhagwat, have expressed concern about the potential consequences of population decline, particularly as it could reduce the country’s demographic dividend. The youth population has been a major driver of India’s economic growth in recent decades, but if fertility rates continue to decline, India may face a similar demographic shortfall in the future.
Challenges in India
Several factors are contributing to India’s declining fertility rate, making it more difficult for families to have children:
- Economic pressure: Rising inflation, high cost of living and economic uncertainty make parenthood financially challenging. Many families are finding it difficult to balance the costs of raising children with the demands of an increasingly expensive society.
- Gender Inequality: Gender roles in India traditionally place most of the responsibility for child-rearing on women. As more women enter the workforce and seek education and career advancement, they are delaying marriage and childbearing, leading to declining fertility.
- Delayed Marriage and Changing Priorities: As people delay marriage and have children later in life, fertility rates naturally fall. The increase in single-person households and changing attitudes toward family structure and work-life balance are also contributing factors.
- Infertility: Rising levels of infertility driven by lifestyle factors, stress and environmental influences are making it difficult for couples to have children, leading to declining fertility.
How can things change in India?
As both South Korea and India face demographic transition, experts suggest several strategies to manage potential challenges:
- Financial improvement: India should focus on policies that promote economic growth and job creation, ensuring that the economy can support a growing population and shrinking workforce. Reforms to the social security and pension systems will be critical to the growing elderly demographic.
- Encouraging Family Development: South Korea and India could implement policies that encourage larger families, such as tax breaks, subsidized child care, and financial assistance for young families. Addressing gender inequality in caregiving and work-life balance could also lead to higher fertility rates.
- Improve work-life balance: Encouraging men’s participation in household chores and child-rearing can help reduce the burden on women, making it easier for them to balance career and family life.
- Education and Awareness: Public awareness campaigns that promote healthy family policies, as well as address changing social norms around family and gender roles, can support changes in attitudes toward childbearing.
India is looking towards increasing population
By 2050, India may face a situation where the population of elderly people will exceed that of children. This would undermine India’s demographic dividend, potentially destabilizing its economy and social structure. Without interventions to manage these changes, India may find itself facing the same challenges as South Korea and Japan, where a growing population and shrinking workforce hinder economic growth and social stability.
India’s demographic transition, although occurring at a slower pace than South Korea, is an important issue that requires immediate attention. Balancing population growth with economic stability will be key to ensuring that India avoids the pitfalls of a rapidly aging society. As South Korea’s fertility crisis shows, countries will have to adapt their policies and structures to deal with inevitable changes in population dynamics. With its large and young population, India still has an opportunity to act before its demographic situation becomes as precarious as that of South Korea.
