Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suffered a setback on Tuesday when his Liberal Party lost to the Conservatives in a federal byelection in a longtime Liberal stronghold, prompting Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre to call an early election.
In a closely contested race, Conservative candidate Don Stewart defeated the Liberal Party’s Leslie Church by 590 votes to win the Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St Paul’s. The contest also involved Indian-origin New Democratic Party candidate Amrit Parhar.
Toronto—Saint Paul is a federal electoral district in the province of Toronto, Ontario. The Liberal Party has held Toronto—Saint Paul since 1993. It is one of 338 seats in the House of Commons.
The Canadian media commented that Stewart’s victory over Church was surprising, as the seat had been held by the Liberals for over 30 years.
Before Monday, the seat had been held by the Liberal Party for 10 consecutive elections. Former MP Carolyn Bennett – whose appointment as ambassador to Denmark triggered the byelection – was the local representative for more than 25 years.
“Thank you, Toronto-St. Paul! I am so grateful for the trust you have placed in me and I will never take it for granted. I promise I will be your voice on Parliament Hill,” Stewart wrote on X.
Her opponent Church commented after losing the election that the Liberals have 16 months until the next election. “I plan to be the Liberal candidate in St. Paul. We are starting to work on winning back the trust of voters…,” she posted on X.
He wrote, “Congratulations to Don Stewart on a great campaign. We look forward to the rematch.”
According to preliminary results, Stewart received 42.1 per cent of the vote with 15,555 votes, while Church received 40.5 per cent of the vote with 14,965 votes. NDP candidate Parhar came in third with 10.9 per cent of the vote. Christian Cullis, who contested for the Green Party, received 2.9 per cent of the vote.
Losing the historic stronghold is likely to increase pressure on Prime Minister Trudeau, Global News reports.
CBC News commented, “The Liberals’ poor showing in such a stronghold could prompt some introspection for Trudeau, whose popularity has plummeted as inflation, a cost-of-living crisis, high housing prices and rising immigration levels fuel voter discontent.”
It said the Conservative Party’s shake-up could cause some concern in the Liberal caucus, as such a dramatic vote change could also put other supposedly “safe” seats at stake for the Conservative Party at the next general election, expected in 2025.
Conservative leader Poilievre called on Prime Minister Trudeau to call an early election, after what he described as a “shocking reversal” on social media on Tuesday.
“The verdict is in: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call an election on a carbon tax now,” Poilievre wrote on X.
Toronto—Saint Paul’s voters told CBC News throughout the campaign that the government’s handling of the housing crisis, inflation and the Israel-Hamas conflict was poor.
But it wasn’t just a matter of issues — many voters expressed a desire for change and boredom with Trudeau.
Even former and current Liberal supporters told CBC News that Trudeau should resign as leader if the party loses this once-ruby-red Liberal seat.
Trudeau, whose allegations of “possible” involvement of Indian agents in the killing of a Sikh terrorist in Canada last September seriously strained Ottawa’s ties with New Delhi, has given no indication of stepping down.
The 52-year-old prime minister has repeatedly said he will lead the Liberal Party into a federal election, which is likely to take place sometime next year.
Meanwhile, national polls show Trudeau’s Liberal Party is struggling to gain and maintain support, while Conservative support is on the rise. A poll conducted by Ipsos for Global News showed Trudeau’s declining popularity is “dragging down” the Liberals’ fortunes.
A majority of voters (68 percent) want him to step down, with Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker describing the number as “close to an all-time low,” while Conservative leader Poilievre, 45, is strengthening his position.
In that survey, the Conservatives got 42 per cent of the vote, while the Liberals got 24 per cent. Nearly half – 44 per cent – said they think Conservative leader Poilievre would make the best prime minister, while 75 per cent of Canadians want another party to take over the government from the Liberals.
Global News reports that only 25 per cent think the Liberals “deserve re-election.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)