Within minutes of the conclusion of this week’s presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, it became clear to many that the 81-year-old Biden might not be able to win the general election in November.
His inability to communicate clearly during the 90-minute debate led to strong criticism across the American political spectrum, particularly among Democrats.
Former Obama administration official and CNN analyst Van Jones said of Biden:
He had to pass a test tonight to restore faith in the country and the base, but he failed to do so.
We are still far from our tradition. And it is time for this party to find a different way forward.
Biden took some jabs at his predecessor over Trump’s various personal indiscretions and the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, saying at one point, “You have the morals of a street cat.”
But it was not enough to convince many skeptics that Biden was capable of taking on the Trump campaign, and handling the world’s most difficult job as America’s commander-in-chief for the next four years.
If polls over the weekend show Biden losing support after his terrible debate performance, which seems very likely, the move to replace him as the Democrats’ nominee will become even more intense and ultimately irresistible.
How will this play out over the next few weeks?
Persuading Biden to step down
Despite fierce criticism from his party, Biden remains in control of his own destiny. He won 99% of pledged delegates in the Democratic primary process earlier this year, meaning he is entitled to the nomination. As a result, any decision to move to another candidate starts with Biden.
In the absence of dramatic health news or his removal under the Constitution’s 25th Amendment, which allows such action by the vice president and a majority of his Cabinet if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” Biden would have to agree to step down as the party’s nominee.
We have to be realistic here: Biden is a very stubborn person. You can’t be president of the United States without extreme self-confidence. Biden may not be the smartest or most talented politician, but he is determined and relentless in his ambitions.
He has run for president twice before his success in 2020. He hasn’t let a brain aneurysm, plagiarism allegations, family drama or personal tragedy deter him from seeking the nation’s highest office. The day after his debate with Trump, he shook his fist at a campaign event in North Carolina and insisted, “When you fall, you get up again”.
Persuading Biden to step down will require the cooperation of his wife, first lady Jill Biden. Known as “Doctor Jill,” she has taken an active role in managing the president’s daily life and public appearances.
There are very few senior Democratic Party leaders who could be influential with Biden. The list probably begins and ends with former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. If they both approach the first lady and forcefully urge Biden to back down, it could be very hard to resist.
How can Biden save his reputation?
If Biden withdraws from the race before the Democratic convention in mid-August, his delegates could vote for a new nominee at that event. Potential nominees include Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
What’s noteworthy is that, with the exception of Harris, none of these candidates have been publicly scrutinized during the Democratic primary process for the world’s most scrutinized job.
If Biden withdraws from the race after the convention, a special meeting of members of the Democratic National Committee will decide on a new nominee. The committee comprises about 500 prominent party members from all US states and territories. (Whitmer is one of three vice presidents.)
Biden’s senior confidants may be asking themselves: Which scenario offers Biden a more dignified and successful departure?
He will probably want to anoint a successor and choose the method that gives him the most control. This could be the convention route, where he can at least claim the loyalty of his primary delegates.
This will require an announcement in the next few weeks. The sooner the better, so as to garner as much public support as possible for the new candidate. Biden can salvage a great deal of his reputation if his chosen successor defeats Trump in November.
Things look grim for Democrats right now, but they could be in a stronger position in the long run. Trump is deeply unpopular among most Americans. The 2021 insurrection remains a major stain on his legacy. His vote threshold is still likely to be below 50% among likely voters in November.
Veteran Obama strategist David Axelrod warned Republicans after the debate:
If there’s a change at the top of the ticket for any reason, you could be in trouble with Donald Trump. Because the guy that was out there tonight is not a guy who’s going to inspire people.
A tough and nimble Democratic candidate who can communicate clearly could be very successful in November.
,Author: Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney)
,disclosure statement: Lester Munson receives funding from the Center for U.S. Studies at the University of Sydney. He is affiliated with the BGR Group, a Washington, D.C. consulting firm, and has served as a Republican official in the George W. Bush administration and on Capitol Hill.)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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