There was little discussion on foreign policy at the first US presidential debate of the 2024 election, but President Joe Biden’s poor performance will have America’s allies cheering for a return to power for Donald Trump, analysts say.
Biden’s supporters had hoped the debate would assuage concerns that he was too old to serve, but many lawmakers, analysts and investors said the event gave a boost to Trump.
“While Mr Trump didn’t win, Mr Biden could have been in a worse position,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat who is now a research director at the think tank Canon Institute for Global Studies.
“Unlike eight years ago, we and other European and Asian allies are much more prepared. Still, Mr Trump is unpredictable.”
For Japan and South Korea, among America’s closest allies in Asia, relations with the Trump administration have at times been strained, as Trump demanded greater payments for military aid and trade tensions also arose.
“The biggest question for Japan will be whether Trump will truly value and maintain the security alliance,” said Takashi Kawakami, a professor at Japan’s Takushoku University in Tokyo.
Peter Lee, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said the debate has “highlighted much more clearly” the prospect of a second Trump administration. Lee said he expects Trump to be “much tougher” the second time around in pressuring his allies to increase defense spending.
Trump has also launched a tariff war with China, the world’s second-largest economy, and has proposed imposing tariffs of 60% or more on all Chinese goods if he wins the election on November 5.
Eugene Investment & Securities analyst Lee Jae-il said foreign companies that rely on U.S. markets, such as automakers, would also be concerned about the growing possibility of Trump’s return, as he implemented “numerous” tariff-related policies during his previous term.
“Trump, like a trade war maniac, may target not only China but also impose tariffs against other countries under the concept of American exceptionalism,” said Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities in Seoul.
War in Ukraine
In Europe, Trump’s criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and demands for more payments from other members dominated his previous administration. His skepticism toward NATO is causing even more concern this time around, as Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought the conflict to the bloc’s doorstep.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had previously cheered Biden’s re-election prospects. But on Friday a senior defense figure in the ruling coalition lamented Biden’s performance and urged Democrats to find another candidate.
“The fact that a person like Trump could become president again because the Democrats are unable to field a strong candidate against him would be a historic tragedy that would be felt all over the world,” Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann of the liberal FDP party told the Rheinische Post newspaper.
Scholz’s spokesman did not comment on the specifics of the debate, but stressed that the Chancellor highly values Biden and that Scholz had never spoken to Trump, as there were no similarities during their tenures.
During the debate, Trump accused Biden of not standing up to China on trade. He also said China’s Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin “don’t respect” Biden and are leading the country toward “World War III.”
Biden responded by saying Trump’s tariff proposals would result in higher costs for American consumers, and that he “gets along” with people like Kim and Putin.
Putin has said it does not matter to Russia who is in the White House, and on Friday the Kremlin declined to comment, saying it was an internal US matter.
US allies, including Japan and Germany, have begun laying the groundwork for Trump’s possible return in recent months.
“The likelihood of Trump’s return has increased. Higher tariffs and support for Ukraine would also make a big difference,” said Kazuhiro Mashima of Sophia University in Tokyo.
“The Japanese government is also anticipating various developments in the event of Trump’s arrival and is gradually taking steps to deal with them, including contacting people close to Trump.”
‘Trump 2.0’
In Sydney, a number of Australian officials and experts participated in a workshop titled “Trump 2.0” while the debate was airing.
“The feeling today is that this was a disaster for Biden,” said Peter Dean, a professor at the Sydney-based United States Studies Centre who attended the workshop.
“The environment has changed significantly since the debate and the consensus is that if you weren’t preparing for Trump 2.0, that’s now the smart move and the smartest move.”
Keir Starmer, leader of Britain’s Labour Party and a leading candidate in next week’s election, was asked on BBC radio if he was worried about Biden after the debate.
He said: “I have a lot of work to do at the moment with my election campaign…The relationship between Britain and the US is strong, it is historic and, of course, it transcends individuals.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
