Syria’s future remains uncertain following the sudden fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Assad was once considered invincible, but pressure for a rapid offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as al-Nusra Front, the terrorist group affiliated with al-Qaeda, and allied factions Assad’s regime collapsed.
Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, succeeding his father Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron fist for nearly three decades. Initially there were hopes that Bashar would bring reform and openness to Syria. However, these aspirations were dashed as he maintained the repressive structure of his father’s regime.
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Assad’s legacy will be forever tarnished by his response to protests in 2011, which turned into a brutal civil war. More than half a million people were killed, six million became refugees, and countless others were internally displaced. With military support from Russia and Iran, Assad survived against a fragmented opposition that relied on Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah.
Preoccupied with their own conflicts – Russia in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges – no one could provide significant support. Within days rebels captured key cities such as Aleppo, Hama and Homs before advancing into Damascus.
a delicate infection
Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, now known by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, announced the formation of a transitional authority. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has been appointed as caretaker of state institutions.
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In a statement, al-Jalali expressed his willingness to cooperate with any leadership elected by the Syrian people.
Despite these efforts, HTS’s history – rooted in al-Qaeda – casts a long shadow over its promises of diplomatic and nationalist approach. Doubts are rife about its long-term intentions and ability to rule a fragmented country.
The end of Assad’s rule will not translate immediately into peace for the Syrian people. HTS’s past association with extremist groups raises fears of a harsh, authoritarian regime under the guise of Islamic rule. Millions of displaced Syrians at home and abroad face an uncertain future as they watch the events unfold with hope and trepidation.
Russian jerk
Assad’s fall is a blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. Since its intervention in 2015, Russia has been the regime’s most steadfast supporter, maintaining strategic assets such as the Tartus naval facility and Hmeimim airbase in Latakia. These bases are important for power projection in the Mediterranean and Africa.
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However, Russia’s military attention is currently focused on the war in Ukraine. The loss of control in Syria has raised questions about Moscow’s ability to protect its strategic positions in the region.
Iran is losing its axis of resistance
For Iran, Assad’s fall disrupts the “axis of resistance” that links Tehran through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This network has been important for arms transfer and increasing influence in the region. With Hezbollah weakened by its recent conflict with Israel and pressure from Iran’s proxies in Yemen and Iraq, Tehran’s war strategy will require a different approach.
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Iran’s preoccupation with Israel, which it views as an existential threat, further limits its ability to respond effectively in Syria. These challenges have been heightened by Israel’s recent targeting of Iranian assets, putting Tehran on the defensive.
Türkiye’s role
Türkiye’s role in Assad’s fall remains unclear. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long advocated a diplomatic solution to the Syrian conflict, Assad has consistently rejected his calls. Türkiye, home to more than three million Syrian refugees, has a vested interest in resolving the conflict to facilitate their return.
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Ankara has denied direct involvement in the HTS attack, but analysts suggest Turkey’s tacit approval or indirect support may have played a role. Erdogan’s priorities include securing Türkiye’s borders and countering Kurdish fighters in northern Syria.
Israel’s strategic thinking
For Israel, the fall of the Assad regime represents both opportunity and risk. The collapse of Iran’s primary ally in Syria has disrupted Hezbollah’s supply chain, but the rise of HTS as a major power introduces new uncertainties.
Israel has strengthened its presence along the Golan Heights, preparing for possible dispersal or attempts by rebels to seize Syrian army reserves. The Israeli military is also wary of Iran and Hezbollah taking advantage of the chaos to acquire advanced weaponry.
