Five decades of Baath rule in Syria ended on Sunday when Islamist-led rebels announced they had captured Damascus, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee. The lightning attack forced global stakeholders to think about the geopolitical impact of Syria’s collapse on ongoing conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war.
Following President Assad’s reported departure, Ukraine said the collapse of Russia’s ally Syria in the face of an onslaught of rebel groups shows Moscow cannot fight on two fronts. “We can see that Russia cannot fight on two fronts – this is clear from the events in Syria,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tikhayi told reporters, denying that Kiev was involved in the fighting there. .
Tikhai, another ally of Assad, was responding to a question about Iran’s accusations that Ukraine is supporting what Tehran calls terrorist groups. “Ukraine clearly and decisively rejects any allegations regarding our alleged involvement in the deteriorating security situation in Syria,” the spokesperson said.
“Significant Russian losses in Ukraine have caused Moscow to withdraw most of its troops and equipment from Syria, leaving its ally without essential support,” Tikhayi said.
fall of syria
At the height of the conflict in Syria nearly a decade ago, Aleppo was on the front lines of the war between government-controlled and rebel forces. However, with the help of Russian airpower and the Lebanon-based terrorist group Hezbollah, President Bashar al-Assad was able to regain control of all of Aleppo by the end of 2016. Since then, the conflict with rebels in Syria has been fairly stable, largely confined to the Idlib Governorate adjacent to the Aleppo Governorate.
However, after years of being locked behind frozen borders, Syrian rebels have surged forward in the sharpest battlefield advance by either side since the rebellion descended into civil war against President Assad 13 years ago.
Two senior military officials told Reuters that Mr Assad, who has crushed all forms of dissent, flew from Damascus to an undisclosed destination on Sunday as rebels said they were leaving with no sign of troop deployment. Had entered the capital.
The rebel groups said, “After 50 years of oppression under the Ba’ath regime, and 13 years of crimes and atrocities and (forced) displacement… we today declare the end of this dark period and the beginning of a new era for Syria.” We do.” Telegram.
But the Syrian army later said it was continuing operations against “terrorist groups” in the major cities of Hama and Homs and rural areas of Deraa.
The pace of events in Syria has stunned Arab capitals and raised fears of a new wave of regional instability. Clearly, armed opposition forces took advantage of the shift in the balance of power caused by nearby wars – in Ukraine and Lebanon and the Middle East.
Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon has deeply damaged the so-called axis of resistance to Mr. Assad’s ally Iran, especially Hezbollah. At the same time, another stakeholder in Syria, Russia, has been distracted by its fight in Ukraine, making it harder to defend the Assad regime.
Russia’s involvement in Syria
The rapid advance of rebels in Syria is threatening one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proudest achievements, his 2015 military intervention to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The end of Mr Assad’s control in Syria threatens not only Russia’s reputation but also its coveted military holdings in the eastern Mediterranean – the naval base of Tartus and, further north, Hmeimim air base, both held for 49 years. The lease was obtained after Russia’s regime-saving intervention, according to a report in The Washington Post.
In addition to using these bases to protect Mr. Assad’s fragile regime, Moscow seeks to challenge American dominance by projecting its military power in the eastern Mediterranean and asserting the role of a world power with significant regional interests. Have used them.
However, Russia currently has its hands full with the war on Ukraine. According to an estimate by Britain’s Ministry of Defence, November was by far the costliest month of the war for Moscow’s forces, with an average of more than 1,500 killed or wounded a day. Russia has been facing Ukrainian incursions on its own soil since August, which it is now struggling to repel with the help of North Korean troops.
Now amid the news of Syria’s collapse, Russia is in danger of losing control over Hmeimim and Tartus bases.
How might Syria’s collapse affect Russia’s war in Ukraine?
According to a report by The Kyiv Independent, Syria expert Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute said that even during the war on Ukraine, Moscow never reduced its military presence. However, the quality of Russia’s officer corps in Syria had declined.
Speaking on the Lawfare podcast, he said, “Russia has maintained exactly the same military level. They have conducted the same number of air sorties over Syria with the same geographic breadth as they did over Ukraine before the war.”
What has changed, however, is that Russia can no longer rely on the Wagner Group, which has played a key role in protecting the Kremlin’s interests in Syria in the past. Stuck in Ukraine, Russia cannot send serious reinforcements to its troops in the Middle Eastern country, according to a report by The Interpreter.
Following the invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has lost many allies from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The end of Mr Assad’s rule could mean Russia would also lose Syria, with the Kremlin eventually forced to close its Khmeimim air base in the Latakia region and the naval facility in Tartus.
Over the past two years of the war, Moscow has redeployed weapons from Syria to Ukraine, including Pantsir missile systems. Exposing its military and political weakness in Syria could weaken Russia’s leverage in any potential negotiations around Ukraine.
According to a report by Euro News, the fall of Aleppo has put the Kremlin at risk of military encroachment and put its alliance with Iran under strain due to their competing military objectives in the country.
Russia is thus keen to encourage dialogue between Ankara and Damascus and has made diplomatic efforts to initiate trilateral talks.
