For the first time in 14 years, Apple is on track to ship more smartphones than its biggest rival Samsung. According to a new report from Counterpoint Research, 2025 will mark a major shift in the global smartphone leaderboard, as record-breaking iPhone 17 sales pushed Apple to the top.

Counterpoint estimates Apple will ship about 243 million iPhones this year, compared to 235 million shipments for Samsung. This will give Apple a 19.4 percent share in the global smartphone market, surpassing Samsung’s 18.7 percent. While shipments don’t always translate directly into sales, they serve as a strong indicator of demand and retailer confidence, and for Apple, that demand appears to be growing.

iPhone 17 leads a record-breaking year

Apple’s strong performance has been boosted by the iPhone 17 series launch in September, which Counterpoint described as enjoying a “bumper” holiday sales season. The firm reported that iPhone 17 and iPhone Air sales in the US grew 12 percent in the first four weeks after launch compared to the iPhone 16 series, while in China, a market where Apple faces intense local competition, sales increased 18 percent over the same period.

“In addition to the overwhelmingly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the main driver behind the improved shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” said Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research. “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”

In short, millions of users who bought new phones during the lockdown are finally ready to upgrade, and Apple seems to be benefiting from it.

However, Samsung may struggle to survive in the short term. Counterpoint warned that the company faces increasing pressure from Chinese smartphone brands in the mid-range and budget segments, potentially limiting its ability to regain the top spot.

Apple’s long-term benefits

The research firm believes Apple’s dominance will last more than a one-year wonder. Counterpoint estimates the company will maintain its lead through 2029, supported by a growing ecosystem, a loyal user base, and an increasingly diverse product line-up.

Between 2023 and mid-2025, an estimated 358 million second-hand iPhones will have changed hands, and analysts say many of those users are likely to upgrade to new iPhones in the coming years. “These factors will create a larger demand base that is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth in the coming quarters,” Counterpoint said.

Apple has also benefited from several favorable tailwinds. The trade truce between the US and China mitigated the impact of tariffs, helping to stabilize its supply chain. Meanwhile, a weak US dollar and strong global economic outlook boosted consumer confidence and demand in emerging markets.

“With these structural headwinds, Apple is well positioned to overtake Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.

Looking ahead, Apple’s line-up will continue to expand. Counterpoint expects the company to launch the budget-friendly iPhone 17e along with its first foldable iPhone in 2026. Future improvements to Siri and a major iPhone design revamp in 2027 are also suggested to keep the brand’s momentum going strong.

By diversifying at different price levels, from affordable “E” models to high-end Pro versions, Apple is positioning itself to appeal to both ambitious buyers in emerging markets and loyal upgraders in mature markets. With increasing priority for the iOS ecosystem, this strategy could help Apple retain its crown for the next decade.