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Home World News Attack on Aleppo, Bashar Assad in trouble. Is Syria moving towards regime change?

Attack on Aleppo, Bashar Assad in trouble. Is Syria moving towards regime change?

by PratapDarpan
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Syrian Islamist rebels have launched one of their biggest offensive against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in years, capturing government-held towns before taking control of “half of Aleppo city”. This is the first major challenge for President Assad and his allies – Russia and Iran – in four years. Rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced from the remaining Syrian opposition-held Idlib region, where front lines have largely stabilized after Russia and Turkey, which back rebels, agreed to a ceasefire. Are. 2020.

By Friday, opposition fighters and their Turkish-backed allies had captured more than 50 towns and villages in the north and entered western districts of Aleppo, a city of about two million people that was Syria’s pre-war manufacturing base. Was the center.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, fighters rapidly captured half of Aleppo without facing significant resistance.

“There has been no fighting, not a single shot was fired, as regime forces retreated,” Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman was quoted as saying by AFP.

The offensive began on Wednesday, the same day that Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel signed a fragile ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. The Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad and its Russian backers reportedly retaliated with air strikes on newly captured territory and other rebel-held areas.

The fighting was initially fierce, with 277 people killed, according to the Britain-based Observatory. The death toll included 28 civilians, most of whom were killed in Russian air strikes.

Attack on Aleppo, Bashar Assad in trouble. Is Syria moving towards regime change?

Fighting in northwestern Syria kills 27 civilians: Reuters

civil war in syria

The civil war in Syria began in March 2011 when Mr. Assad’s regime launched a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests in the city of Deraa. The Assad family, which has ruled Syria since 1971, used brutal force to crush the rebellion. The demonstrations soon spread across the country, with protesters arming themselves to defend their cities and launching attacks on the Syrian Army.

Over the following months, the rebels splintered into hundreds of armed groups. The conflict also attracted jihadist extremist groups such as HTS – a faction formerly linked to the terrorist group al Qaeda – which soon became one of the major anti-government factions. The United States has banned HTS as a terrorist group.

With rebel groups gaining ground during the early years of the civil war, Bashar al-Assad sought help from his allies to keep his regime alive. Iran, Syria’s closest ally, has supported Mr Assad’s regime since the beginning of the war by providing advisers, arms, billions of dollars and troops to help him maintain his hold, according to a report by The Telegraph.

Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah have also reportedly been supporting Mr Assad’s forces since at least 2012. Russia also decided to support government forces in 2015, with President Vladimir Putin committing Moscow’s air force as well as ground troops to ensure that the Syrian regime does not do so. Fall.

However, neighboring Turkey, another major player in the war, has thrown its support behind opposition to Mr Assad’s regime. Ankara has used rebel groups in Syria to block the Kurdish YPG, which dominates the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). According to Ankara, the group is an extension of the Kurdish rebel group banned in Türkiye, The Telegraph reports.

But with the help of Tehran and Moscow, Mr Assad was able to turn the tide of the rebellion and retake key cities, and in March 2020, Russia – which backs Mr Assad – and Turkey – which backs the rebels. Has – has called a ceasefire. Fire to stop fighting in Idlib region.

According to UN estimates released in 2022, about 300,000 people were killed in the decade-long conflict.

Anti-government fighters are preparing to topple the equestrian statue of Bassel al-Assad: AFP

Anti-government fighters are preparing to topple the equestrian statue of Bassel al-Assad: AFP

latest rebellion

For years, Moscow and Tehran have lobbied the autocratic regime of President Bashar al-Assad to fend off the rebels. However, in recent months, the ceasefire has been repeatedly violated, with what analysts say has been an increase in attacks against the enclave by Mr Assad’s regime and its allies.

The latter offensive reportedly united various rebel factions that represent the last remnants of the opposition groups. The main group is HTS, which controls most of the northwestern region still held by opposition groups. According to a New York Times report, several Turkish-backed rebel groups have also joined the offensive.

According to the report, Lieutenant Colonel Hassan Abdulghani, military commander of the opposition operations room, issued a video statement announcing the offensive and said the aim of the attack was to stop Syrian airstrikes and other attacks on opposition-held territory.

“To divert their fire from our people, this operation is not an option. We have an obligation to defend our people and their lands…It has become clear to everyone that regime militias and their allies, including Iranian mercenaries, have declared open war on the Syrian people,” he said.

Anti-government fighters to patrol central Aleppo on Nov. 30: AFP

Anti-government fighters to patrol central Aleppo on Nov. 30: AFP

Time of rebellion against Mr Assad’s regime

Although Syria is not directly involved in the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, its territory has reportedly long been a proxy battlefield for international powers. For years, Israel has carried out deadly strikes in Syria, saying its targets are Iran-backed groups, including the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

These attacks have escalated following the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. This has weakened Assad’s regime. Additionally, President Assad has relied on the help of Russian and Iranian forces to keep the rebels in check for years, but ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have weakened his allies as well.

“Pro-regime militias are stepping up their attacks in the region, trying to deter rebels as Israel weakens allies of the Syrian regime such as Hezbollah and Iran,” said Natasha Hall, senior fellow at the Center for the Middle East Program. Strategic and International Studies told the New York Times.

Experts said the success of the attack so far indicates that the Syrian government is weak and that various opposition groups are increasing their strength.

“Years ago, a crime of this size would have been pushed back by the regime,” Charles Lister, director of the Middle East Institute’s Syria and counterterrorism programs, told the newspaper.

However, opposition forces such as HTS have invested heavily in resources and training for night operations. “It basically levels the playing field,” he said.

This aerial view shows Aleppo's historic citadel and its surroundings damaged by the civil war: AFP

This aerial view shows Aleppo’s historic citadel and its surroundings damaged by the civil war: AFP

Who is in control in Syria?

More than a decade-long civil war, offensives by the terrorist group Islamic State and numerous proxy battles have divided Syria into zones of power control.

President Assad’s government reportedly controls 60 percent of the country. But large parts of Syria are still outside government control, including opposition-held areas in the northwest and northeast. These areas are largely dominated by the US-backed Kurdish-led group. Other opposition-controlled areas are in northwestern Syria including parts of Idlib and Aleppo provinces, home to about 5 million people.

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