Republican candidate Donald Trump has registered a significant victory in the US elections, giving him the mandate to come to power by January. Hours after their victory became apparent, the Taliban-led interim government in Kabul issued a carefully worded online statement, formalizing its diplomatic presence on the regional and global stage and, by extension, its political reality as the sole source of Reflects efforts to promote as. Of power and governance in Kabul. The biggest goal for the Taliban at present is to achieve international legitimacy. To some extent it has succeeded in doing this. While the drama of the US elections was still unfolding, Indian officials were already in Kabul to continue a contentious, difficult, yet vital engagement with the Taliban. The visit included the first meeting with the Islamic Emirate’s acting defense minister, Mullah Yacob, who is also the eldest son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar. India has a strong history of people-to-people ties with Afghanistan and maintaining it remains a top priority despite initial hurdles on visa allocation and allowing access to Afghans after 2021.
a complex statement
The Taliban statement stopped short of congratulating Trump on his victory (ideologically, democracy is not recognized by the group, according to their interpretation of Sharia), but it expressed hope that a pragmatic approach toward Afghanistan would be taken. . It reminded the world of the success of the Doha agreement between the Taliban and the Trump administration, which ended the two-decade-long war. Interestingly, in concluding the statement the Taliban expressed hope that the Trump administration will work to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Like many in the region, the Taliban has taken a tough stance against Israel, putting its weight behind the Palestinian cause, but without expressing direct support for Hamas or Hezbollah, both of which are recognized as terrorist groups in many countries in the Middle East. Has been named in. -1990s.
For the Taliban today, its political survival is extremely important, and its weakness as a political system is obvious. The Taliban hierarchy had ties to the Trump administration – particularly with former US special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad. Trump has already criticized the Biden administration’s way of exiting the country. In September the president-elect said the US should have retained control of Bagram Airfield, the largest US-run military installation 60 kilometers outside Kabul. He based this argument not on counter-terrorism or on directly dealing with the Taliban, but on Afghanistan’s proximity to China and the fact that its natural resources remained largely untapped. True, during his campaign, Trump promised to “bring back” Bagram. But it is still highly unlikely that the US under him would actually return to the country in any formal capacity. It also remains to be seen how Republicans will view anti-Taliban groups under Trump’s leadership, and whether support for them will be met with renewed interest within the party.
Taliban’s increasing engagement
Naturally, now that the US is out of Afghanistan and Trump is back in power in the White House, the Taliban will have to work deeper to remain politically engaged with the US. In fact the Group has made significant progress in involving the regional and international communities. It has re-marketed itself as a highly extremist group that can compete with more nefarious, violent and globally expanding groups like the Islamic State Khorasan (ISKP). In the Middle East, it operates embassies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, while maintaining its political holdings in Qatar. Taliban’s main ideologue Sirajuddin Haqqani also got travel exemption from the United Nations Security Council and went to Saudi Arabia for Haj pilgrimage. He also visited the United Arab Emirates, with which the Taliban has long-standing ties.
A major concern for the Taliban regarding Trump’s presidency will come from their erratic decision making. This is especially significant given that many Islamist groups have participated in the Taliban’s wars for decades, including al Qaeda. It is believed that al Qaeda did not announce a chief after the assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul due to Taliban pressure on the group.
It is expected that in the coming time, Trump will also take a tough stance on Iran. It is based not only on predictions, but also on facts. His administration unilaterally withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal. Even in the Gulf, despite normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a tougher stance would be welcomed by Washington. “Bad news for Tehran and its proxies. Netanyahu is a big winner. “It’s time to go after Iran’s nuclear facilities,” UAE public intellectual Abdulkhaleq Abdullah said on social media shortly after Trump’s victory.
iran question
One of the main benefits that Iran has seen in the last few years is the US withdrawal in Afghanistan. Even though Tehran does not particularly agree or enjoy the Taliban as a neighbor, it considers functional relations with them more pleasant than the US military presence on both sides of its eastern and western borders. With its ‘Forward Defence’ strategy encompassing proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and a relatively quiet border with Afghanistan, Tehran hopes to keep sufficient distance between itself and US forces in the region. The Taliban, whether they like it or not, are part of this design. In February, to the Taliban’s chagrin, Iran’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Hassan Kazemi Qom, hinted at Afghanistan being part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’. Under now-slain Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also recruited Shias from Afghanistan for the Fatemiyoun Brigades fighting in Syria and Iraq.
Taliban’s options are limited. If there were a broader conflict between Israel and Iran, it would have no choice but to accommodate, if not fully engage, Tehran’s position. The ideological underpinnings of the group would make it difficult for the movement to take a rational or diplomatic position. Groups living in Afghanistan can organize on their own merits or make the state a platform, as has happened before. This would be a direct challenge to the Taliban’s efforts to project political neutrality.
period of uncertainty
Afghanistan remains an unstable state, even though it has been able to connect with many countries, including India. It continues to deal with internal ideological battles between the centers of power in Kabul and Kandahar, border conflicts with its former patron Pakistan, and economic pledges. But the fact that it has managed to strike a deal with the US and regain control and power is also a success story, one that has been widely celebrated by everyone from Al Qaeda to Hamas.
Although Trump is not expected to turn his attention to this part of the geography any time soon – which includes Bagram – his presidency will be as much a test for the Taliban’s political and diplomatic skills as it will be for the rest of the world.
(The author is Deputy Director and Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
