Preparations for the US presidential elections are in full swing, surveys show a close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina will play a key role in determining the outcome.
Trump’s favorability rating is stuck at 43 percent, and has never been above 50 percent since leaving office. This means that he has reached the ceiling of his support and may have to struggle to win the national popular vote.
There are 4 important issues when it comes to the deciding factor. The economy, immigration and border control, abortion issues, and the security of democracy.
The mood of the country is bad, 60-70 percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong path which means the election will change. Historically, when Americans feel the country is on the wrong path, the outgoing president falls out of favor, giving his opponent a significant advantage in the polls, and Harris is feeling that blow.
Trump is seen as the better candidate to manage the economy, leading by 15 points in swing states because under the Biden administration, costs have increased between 10-40 percent.
Trump has made immigration a central issue, and voters see him as the best candidate to manage the border. Biden’s first three years in office saw immigration problems, although rates have now fallen.
Harris is seen as a champion of reproductive rights, and polling shows her leading Trump by 15 points or more among female voters in swing states. Abortion rights are decided at the state level and are on the ballot in two key swing states – Nevada and Arizona – which is a positive aspect for Harris.
Half the country sees Trump as an authoritarian, a threat to American democracy, while Harris has pledged to unite the country and even get Republicans and Democrats to work together.
If Harris wins, it will be because she has successfully struck a chord with voters and made the election a referendum on Trump. His ground game, which includes a US$1 billion machine to reach voters in swing states, will be crucial.
If Trump wins, it will mean voters trust him to manage inflation, immigration and crime. Unease about Harris, a Black and South Asian woman, becoming president may also play a role.
The outcome is not certain and the next 24 hours will be critical. Will Harris’s ground game succeed, or will Trump’s economic message resonate with voters? The country is holding its breath waiting for the results.
