Less than two weeks before voting day, the US presidential race remains deadlocked and statistically tied. A gain of one percentage point here, a fraction there could mean victory or defeat.
That said, Donald Trump appears to have some last-minute momentum, while Kamala Harris is struggling to win over new converts while losing a percentage of traditional voters. Although the average of various national polls still shows Harris leading with 48.1% and Trump leading with 46.4%, her four-point lead in August has shrunk and the ‘vibe’ has changed somewhat. But national elections don’t tell the real story, it’s the state elections where the action happens because of the complex Electoral College system in presidential elections.
Of the seven so-called battleground states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina – Trump is ahead in five and Harris is ahead in two, indicating a swing in her favor. But all this is within the limits of error.
Beyond the “Vibes” Campaign
Last week, Nate Silver, a prominent pollster, listed 24 reasons why Trump would win, including the Electoral College bias in favor of Republicans, voters’ negative perceptions of the economy, increased illegal immigration under the current administration, where Harris The Vice President is included. The vote among black and Latino men shifted toward Trump and, most importantly, Harris’s failure to define herself on the issues in a way that resonates.
Being a “happy warrior” and running “vibes” campaigns is proving inadequate – voters are concerned about inflation, not what influential people say. Harris has been in office for nearly four years, but she can’t seem to separate herself from the administration’s failed policies, which work for her.
It’s no surprise that Democrats are worried while Republicans are a little wobbly at this point. But the tables may turn once again because polls can and have been wrong in the last two elections. Things could swing in either direction in the final stages, depending on voter turnout and the ground game where the Democrats have a definite lead. Dems also have more money – the Harris campaign has collected $1 billion in donations small and large.
Harris’s warnings aren’t working
But what about those final arguments that are still undecided? Trump and Harris are making a similar case – ‘Choose me because the other is a threat to democracy, your way of life, and America itself.’ While Trump always had shades of apocalypse in his arsenal – Democrats as ‘closet communists’, Harris as a ‘radical leftist’, ‘illegals are invading’, ‘the world is in chaos’ – Harris also had the ultimate Charan has caught fever.
His attacks are becoming increasingly sharp. He is busy portraying Trump as toxic, dangerous, uncontrolled, unstable, even a potential dictator and a man who cannot follow an idea even for a minute. The second Trump administration will be the living expression of Project 2025, an extremist agenda crafted by ultra-conservatives. The plan involves mass firing of government employees and dismantling of the entire education department.
The problem is that the warnings aren’t working, especially with blue-collar voters. His campaign may be making a mistake by hitting the wrong nail. Voters have already taken notice of Trump’s dangerous flaws and come up with a remedy. They have filtered out what they don’t like. His inflammatory rhetoric and threats to deploy troops on fellow Americans (Democrats) are seen as rhetoric and not plans for action. After two assassination attempts, he is also the beneficiary of some sympathy, especially among those who feel the Democrats have overstepped by drowning him in legal cases.
an undecided candidate
In contrast, to many Americans Harris remains largely undefined. Is she a populist who will take on big business, or will she stay in her own lane? Even when given the chance to explain her position on illegal immigration and what she would do differently to fix the economy, she played it safe rather than take a different stance. This reinforced the idea that she is an incumbent defending the current administration’s record, not a candidate for change who will “turn the page” as she puts it.
Voters are hungry for “change” from this administration’s policies, whether it’s the economy, broken borders, or two horrific wars. Trump has emphasized all of those issues from the beginning and has created a narrative of Democrats’ failure on all three.
Although Harris is struggling with male voters, she has an edge with women on the issue of reproductive rights. No matter how Trump spins it, he can’t get away from the fact that his Supreme Court appointees overturned Roe v. Wade, taking away a woman’s right to get an abortion. The court referred the case to the states, resulting in a patchwork of restrictive laws, with some states banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. Unlike anyone else, Harris is emotional when speaking on this issue. They need to work on this till the end to motivate women to come out in greater numbers. At the same time, she may admit that illegal immigration should have been managed better.
Dems and liberals are outraged that Trump, a convicted felon, could win the White House again, but voters have other things on their minds. It doesn’t help that Harris paraded Republicans who were alienated from Trump and considered him a closet fascist at her town hall meetings. It doesn’t matter how many Republicans sign the letter in support of it. What matters are his plans, policies and biases, which even at this late stage are largely confined to his website. They have not been translated into effective messages to voters.
McDonald’s Masterstroke
Economic populism is working well for Trump. He appeared at a McDonald’s in Battleford, Pennsylvania, last Sunday, cooking fries and placing orders at the drive-in window. It was a political masterstroke and strengthened his image that he connects with the average people. How a billionaire who has always gamed the system can play the role of a messiah for the working class remains a mystery, but this is where the message of one camp has succeeded more than the other.
The Democratic Party’s alienation from working-class voters — black, white and Latino — is shocking to some, but it has been in process for some time. Republicans stole constituencies in broad daylight, while Democrats were busy playing ‘woke’ and promoting party extremes. In the process, Dems lost touch with most ordinary Americans who don’t live in California and New York.
(Seema Sirohi is a Washington, DC-based columnist and author of ‘Friends with Benefits: The India-US Story’, a book about the last 30 years of relations)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author