Reuters/Ipsos analysis of polling shows that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has erased Republican rival Donald Trump’s lead among the vast middle section of American society: suburban residents and middle-income families.
Since President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid on July 21, Vice President Harris has taken leads in both of these large demographic groups, reinvigorating the Democrats’ chances in the November 5 election, although the race is exceptionally close. Remains physically close.
Suburbanites, who make up nearly half of the American electorate and are as racially diverse as the nation at large, are a major prize. Biden defeated Trump in suburban counties by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.
Before Biden dropped out, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in June and July had Trump ahead of him 43% to 40% among suburbanites, reflecting the Democrat’s struggle to excite supporters.
When Harris launched her campaign in July she began closing the gap and led Trump among suburban voters by 47% to 41% in September and October polling. That represents a nine-point swing in favor of the Democrats, according to an analysis of six Reuters/Ipsos polls that included responses from more than 6,000 registered voters.
During the same period, Trump leads Biden by 44% to 37% among voters in households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 — roughly the middle third of the country — trailing Harris by 43% to 45%, also nine. There is a lead in points. From Trump. The margin of error in the data was about 3 percentage points.
Trump led this group 52%–47% in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls.
Reuters/Ipsos polls have shown that voters consider the economy the No. 1 issue ahead of the election and in a poll in October, 46% of voters said Trump was the better candidate for the economy, 8 points more than Harris’ 38%. .
Polls have also shown Trump as the more trusted candidate on immigration and crime. Trump told supporters in August that he was the candidate who would keep the suburbs safe and ensure that immigrants crossing the border illegally were kept “out of the suburbs.”
Trump has blamed the Biden administration for inflation that has hurt middle-class Americans. Meanwhile, Harris has focused much of her speeches on promises to increase the size of the middle class. In elections he is often chosen as the better candidate for defending democracy and taking a stand against political extremism.
“His focus on affordability has been highly effective in reducing Trump’s gains on inflation and the economy,” said David Wasserman, political analyst at the Cook Political Report.
Wasserman said Harris is doing well among relatively affluent suburbanites, who may be more optimistic about the economy, while her advantage among middle-income voters is a result of her campaign’s regular push to help middle-class families. Could be because of pledges.
But he said turnout in Democratic-leaning urban areas and Republican-leaning rural towns could also be important in deciding the election.
tuning in
Harris supporters contacted by Reuters for follow-up interviews this week also said they had not paid much attention to her before she became a presidential candidate, and as they learned more about her, they grew more fond of her. Became a supporter.
The latest of six surveys conducted Oct. 4-7 showed Harris with a slight 3 percentage point lead over Trump among registered voters, 46% to 43% overall.
His slight lead in national polling is significant, although the winner of the election will likely be determined by the results in seven battleground states – Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia – where polls also show tight competition.
Winning in the middle – whether at the national level or in key election states – does not necessarily lead to crowning a winner. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who received nearly 3 million more votes than Trump nationwide in the 2016 election and beat him by about 1 percentage point in suburban counties, still lost the election when Trump carried six states that voted Democratic in 2012. Left.
Poll respondent Sheila Lester, an 83-year-old Harris supporter who lives in Peoria, Arizona, which is mostly based in the state’s battleground Maricopa County, said in a phone interview that she was confident Trump would defeat Biden.
She said she was pleased when the Democratic Party quickly rallied behind Harris’ candidacy, especially because she could become the first female US president.
“The response she’s gotten has made me a little more proud of this country,” said Lester, a retired customer service worker who considers herself part of the middle class. He said he liked Harris’s toughness on abortion rights and her pledge to expand the middle class. “I’m definitely anti-Trump, but I believe I’m more pro-Harris.”
Maricopa County played a key role in Biden’s 2020 victory, after the county had gone Democratic after voting for Trump in 2016.
Karen Davidson, 83, who lives in West Bloomfield, Michigan, a middle-class suburb of Detroit, said she was not that familiar with Harris before she rose to the top of the ticket.
“I needed to know more about it to form any kind of opinion,” Davidson said.
Davidson continued, “The way she stood up to people who were belittling her made me respect being in the industrial machinery business when women didn’t work in it, I know what it’s like. ” “He had power and that’s what we need to run our country.”
In Pooler, Georgia, a suburb of Savannah, grocery store worker Kevin Garcia said he, too, was relieved that Biden had caved in and Harris’ promises to support small businesses paled in comparison to Trump’s promise to impose taxes on imported goods. Has been given priority.
“I feel better about the prospects,” said Garcia, 24, who lives in a single-family home neighborhood in the state. Like Arizona, the Democratic Party lost by a slim margin in 2020.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
