New Delhi: Operation Epic Fury started as a lightning strike, but has now transformed into a grueling 22-day war. The US and Israel launched a decisive attack, destroying many of Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Waves of missiles struck key military sites, aiming for rapid “get in, get out” destruction.Yet Iran persists. Its military command structure is strong, with drones and missile barrages constantly hunting high-value American and Israeli targets. The initial attack caught Tehran by surprise, but Iran’s resilience has stunned the Trump administration. What was projected as a quick knockout has now turned into a spiral with no end in sight.
The surge has engulfed the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, threatening the global energy chokepoint. Somehow, President Donald Trump and his White House team misjudged Iran’s defiance—underestimating the depth of its resolve, redundant networks, and retaliatory arsenal.Tehran is fighting and turning American arrogance into a long quagmire. As the attacks intensify, Washington is struggling for an off-ramp, highlighting the dangers of underestimating an encircled adversary.1. The illusion of ‘quick strike’ was quickly brokenThe operation was designed as a rapid assassination attack targeting Iran’s top leadership and military infrastructure. However, rather than collapsing, Iran absorbed the war and rapidly reorganized, preventing the conflict from turning into a protracted war.2. Leadership collapse did not break IranThe assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and other senior leaders was expected to create chaos within the Iranian system. Instead, succession occurred rapidly, the chain of command remained intact and military operations continued with minimal disruption.3. Iran’s retaliation was more widespread and swift than expectedDaniel Benaim, a US expert on the Arabian Peninsula, told ANI that the US failed to anticipate how quickly Iran would escalate the conflict regionally.“And actually, I think in some ways, our diplomats were surprised by this unexpected attack on Iran. And I think we were surprised by the fact that Iran coming out of the gate was broadening the conflict in all these ways.” Missile attacks, drone attacks and regional tensions began almost immediately.4. Lack of preparation exposed initial flawsAccording to Benaim, the administration was operationally unprepared for the consequences.“So, I think they miscalculated in the sense that everyone knew it was a possibility and it seems like they weren’t as prepared for it as they could have been. In terms of having property nearby to reopen the strait… it took several days.” Delays in securing shipping lanes and evacuating civilians underlined these shortcomings.5. Strait of Hormuz becomes Iran’s pressure pointTrump advisers initially downplayed the risks to global oil supply.“Oil prices went up and then went down,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said. (NYT)But Iran’s threats to target oil tankers have disrupted shipping, driven up prices and stoked global economic anxiety, exposing a serious miscalculation.6. No clear plan to secure global energy routesThe crisis exposed shortcomings in contingency planning. After a briefing, Senator Christopher Murphy said the administration had “no plan” for the Strait of Hormuz and “didn’t know how to open it back up safely.” This highlighted the absence of a clear economic and military response strategy.7. Iran’s psychology has been fundamentally misread.Benaim argued that Trump failed to understand that Iran would not bow under pressure.“I think that tendency in this case really failed him (Trump) to understand the psychology of Iran and the fact that when they are pushed to the wall, they will not budge.” (ANI)Instead of retreating, Tehran considered the attack an existential threat and escalated it.8. Overconfidence within the administrationDespite the warnings, many officials believed that Iran would respond in a limited manner. Even the Pentagon later acknowledged the uncertainty.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, “I can’t say that we anticipated they would react exactly that way, but we knew it was a possibility.” (NYT)This gap between expectation and reality proved costly.9. Mixed messages and unclear war goalsTrump exuded confidence, at times calling the operation “very complete, very much so”, even as the conflict escalated. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, outlined narrower objectives.“The goals of this mission are clear,” Rubio said. “This is to destroy this regime’s ability to launch missiles… and to destroy their navy.”The divergence indicated a lack of strategic clarity.10. From decisive blow to long quagmireWhat started as a high-impact, short-term strike has turned into a protracted struggle with rising costs. Iran continues to target energy infrastructure and regional assets, while the US faces increasing economic and military pressure.Iranian official Ali Larijani outlined Tehran’s stance.“The Strait of Hormuz will either be a strait of peace and prosperity for all… or it will be a strait of defeat and suffering for the war supporters.” bottom lineThe conflict has exposed how a series of strategic, psychological and economic miscalculations turned a planned quick victory into an open-ended confrontation.With oil markets destabilizing, military costs rising, and no clear end game, Washington now faces the consequences of a war it hoped to control but failed to fully anticipate.