On microfinance, which has seen renewed interest amid regulatory changes, Maheshwari said recent state-level legislation indicates both the importance of the sector and its structural challenges. “This is a very interesting thing brought up by the state. It shows how important microfinance is in the states,” he said, adding that the industry plays a key role in the MSME and lower-ticket economy. However, he flagged the issue of over-lending: “There are big problems as far as multiple loans are concerned… People give more loans to the same borrowers and they in turn default.” They believe the move to limit borrowers to two loans could help stabilize the system. “Some issues are being resolved and this will help the industry as a whole,” he noted, calling the legislation beneficial “for both parties”.
On banking, Maheshwari maintained that PSU lenders retain an edge over private peers. “PSUs continue to move forward… valuations are very cheap,” he said, adding that growth and asset quality are now comparable. He also linked the volatility to the influx of foreign investors. “FIIs are major holders in IT and banks and that is where we are seeing selling.”
Metals, according to him, demand agility rather than long-term assurance. “One year is too long for the metal sector… you have to play quarter by quarter,” he said, citing global volatility. While non-ferrous stocks are largely gone, “ferrous looks interesting for now,” he added, suggesting that steel may offer better near-term opportunities.
On commercial vehicles, Maheshwari acknowledged early signs of recovery but urged caution on capex trends. “CV seems to be in a good place,” he said, although private investment remains slow. Replacement demand, however, may extend the cycle. “The five-year fleet renewal is coming up… replacement demand will be very strong,” he said, adding, “I am positive on the CV cycle.”
In the energy space, he sees a strategic opportunity in upstream PSUs amid geopolitical risks. “Upstream guys like Oil India, ONGC could be a good trading play,” he said, suggesting a cautious stance on OMCs “for the moment”.
Maheshwari was scathing of so-called value retailers. “I don’t know how you value them because they are so overvalued,” he commented, citing high multiples and moderate growth. “Anywhere with a PEG of two or three, nothing catches my attention in this area.”
On authority, he distinguished between production and service plays. “Product-wise, there is nothing cheap… people are discounting well ahead of two-three years of growth,” he said. However, “T&D players are reasonably priced,” making the services a relatively good bet. He also highlighted data centers as an infrastructure demand driver with “strong visibility for the next three to five years”.
Auto remains the relative outperformer. “One of the bright spots in an overall gloomy market… autos will be the top bet at the moment,” he said.
However, in defence, he advised restraint. “The outlook is very good but it is already being priced in… prices are marked to perfection,” he warned, adding that while existing investors may hold, “I don’t see any reason to buy them new.”
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